What is the IPCC’s Credibility on Global Warming? A 2002 Kyoto Debate Retrospective

In 2002, Allan MacRae, P. Eng. was part of a published debate on the Kyoto Accord solicited by APEGA – the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta and it was published in their journal “The PEGG”.

apega the pegg 2002

In the debate, two member of Pembina Institute argued for the Kyoto Accord, claiming that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was the authority on climate science and that Kyoto would lead to economic benefits, while Allan MacRae, P. Eng, along with Dr. Tim Patterson, Professor of Geology at Carleton University and Dr. Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, argued against Kyoto on grounds that solar physics showed a better correlation to climate patterns than carbon dioxide concentrations, and that Kyoto was a flawed agreement that would be economically disastrous to Canada.

Today, Allan MacRae has contributed his submissions to our blog so that the public can evaluate whether or not the IPCC has a credible track record or not.  He and his colleague in these written submissions, meteorologist Joe D’Aleo, present a concerning possibility of a slide into cooling temperatures.

We post these opinions and scientific assessments by Mr. MacRae, which were independent submissions to the Alberta Climate Panel, as a public service.  Allan MacRae is not a member of our organization though his debating partners, Drs. Patterson and Baliunas were scientific advisers to Friends of Science Society and they appear in our climate science documentary “Climate Catastrophe Cancelled.”

Mr. MacRae’s submission to the Alberta Climate Panel:

PLEASE CONFIRM RECEIPT

Submission to Alberta’s Climate Change Advisory Panel (ACCAP)

I request that you post this email AND the two attached papers, written for submission to ACCAP:

1.    The UN’s IPCC Has No Credibility On Global Warming                     September 6, 2015
by Allan MacRae

2.    Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather       September 4, 2015

by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae

SUMMARY:

The members of the Alberta Climate Change Advisory Panel may find these two papers controversial and want to dismiss them.

 The mandate of  the Alberta Climate Change Advisory Panel relies primarily on the scientific position of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the IPCC’s position is being disproved by two decades of credible climate data. NONE of the IPCC’s dire climate change predictions have materialized.

One’s predictive track record is an objective measure of one’s technical competence, and based on its negative predictive track record, the IPCC has NO credibility.

In contrast, the predictive track records of Joseph D’Aleo, a veteran Meteorologist and Allan MacRae, a Professional Engineer, are highly credible. A debate with the Pembina Institute published in 2002 co-authored by Mr. MacRae provides evidence of his predictive competence. Mr. D’Aleo and his colleagues have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in their meteorological forecasts, as further described below*.

Since its first report (FAR, 1990) the IPCC has predicted catastrophic global warming due to increased atmospheric CO2. However, global temperatures in the Lower Troposphere (LT) have NOT warmed in more than 18 years despite significant increases in CO2, according to the most accurate temperature data measured by satellites. The Surface Temperature (ST) data claims some warming, but it is increasingly obvious that the ST data is inaccurate, due to its increasingly large divergence from the satellite data.

Despite claims of more extreme weather due to global warming, the incidence and severity of extreme weather has not increased. The climate has been remarkably stable despite substantial increases in atmospheric CO2.

 Over-hyped fears of global warming are utterly wrong. In fact, cold weather kills. Throughout history and in modern times, many more people succumb to cold exposure than to hot weather, as evidenced in a wide range of cold and warm climates. Evidence is provided from a study of 74 million deaths in thirteen cold and warm countries including Thailand and Brazil, and studies of the United Kingdom, Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada.

Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures. These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national Excess Winter Mortality statistics.

Excess Winter Mortality in the USA typically totals about 100,000 per year – that is, 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths every year during the cold months of December through March. In Canada, Excess Winter Deaths range from about 5000 to 10,000 every year.

Despite our colder climate, Canada typically has slightly lower Excess Winter Mortality Rates than the USA and much lower than the UK. This is attributed to our better adaptation to cold weather, including better home insulation and home heating systems, and much lower energy costs than the UK, as a result of low-cost natural gas due to shale fracking and our lower implementation of inefficient and costly green energy schemes.

The Alberta Climate Change initiative seeks to reduce the use of fossil fuels and increase the use of green energy. In Europe, where green energy schemes have been widely implemented, the result is higher energy costs that are unaffordable for the elderly and the poor, and increased winter deaths. European politicians are retreating from highly-subsidized green energy schemes and returning to fossil fuels.

The problem with green energy schemes is they are not green and they produce little useful energy, primarily because they are too intermittent and require almost 100% fossil-fueled (or other) backup.

The lessons for Alberta are clear: When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, the costs are enormous – globally, trillions of dollars of scarce resources have been squandered, economies have been severely damaged, and innocent people have needlessly suffered and died.

Yours truly, Allan MacRae

* Note:

The Predictive Track Record of Joseph D’Aleo and colleagues has been remarkably accurate.

For the past two winters, both Environment Canada and the USA National Weather Service have forecast mild winters. Joseph D’Aleo and colleagues forecast very cold winters in Central and Eastern North America and their forecasts proved remarkably accurate. Last Fall, we were concerned for public safety so we notified the Canadian and USA governments of our concerns. In the USA, winter energy demand figures were re-calculated using D’Aleo’s winter forecast and correctly projected about 10% more winter energy demand.

The UN’s IPCC Has No Credibility on Global Warming 6Sept2015 Final

Cold Weather Kills MacRae D’Aleo 4Sept2015 Final

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